The Human Truth Foundation

Don't Panic
The World is Not About to End and Western Culture is Safe

By Vexen Crabtree 2013

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#end_of_the_world #hope #humanity #neophobia #western_culture

Popular culture is worse than it ever has been. The education system is following it into disordered inadequacy. Unemployment is undermining society and perhaps as a result, crime rates are getting scary. Immigration is out of control. It is going to be like the fall of the Roman Empire, with weak government no longer in touch with the lives of the citizenry. The European Union is on the verge of collapse, and, the Internet era is eroding our ability to form friendships. Youths are not being brought up properly - computer games and the TV are increasingly violent and graphic: films are now nearly all shallow and simple. Social commentator Daniel Goleman warns we now face a "collective emotional crisis" resulting in worsening social dysfunction1. Global warming and the global economy have created insurmountable problems. All of us, in our lives, are going to face chaos and witness the mass failure of morality and decency. The young no longer respect the old. Jobs and marriages are no longer for life. Did I mention the crime rates?

This, with a few variant details, is what they will think in the 2020s, because they also thought it in the 2010s and 2000s. The 1980s was a decade obsessed with the rising power of computers - they'd turn against us soon, for sure. And recessions were seemingly endless - the anarchists were winning. But perhaps they were right in the 1960s where they warned that mass immorality and liberality would destroy civilisation - if we survived nuclear war, that is. Still further back, those same feelings were echoed in the Industrial revolution, at the end of the era of Empires and at the foundation of global shipping which heralded unheard-of immigration and globalisation (hundreds of years ago). As mankind moved into cities, or into towns, the outcry against the changes in morality and customs was as loud as it was paranoid. In the 1st century CE, the Roman philosopher Seneca reassured us that the vices of mankind, including "contempt for morality... are the defects of humankind, not of the times. No era has ever been free from blame" and that "everyone reproves his own age"2. 2,000 years later, and we're still at it! However do we survive?

Luckily for us, it seems that the more people predict chaos, uncertainty, cataclysms and the end of the world as we know it, the less likely it is to actually happen. Crime rates are falling, large scale wars have apparently ceased to occur, worldwide poverty is decreasing3, literacy has been rising for hundreds of years, and technology and medical science are making astounding strides in preventing diseases (many of which are now gone for good). Jobs and marriages may not be for life, but we are living twice as long. Absolutely nothing is as bad as people say. The press thrive on bad news. Our egos trick us into thinking we are living in the most important times during our own lives. We're not. Those times are yet to come. The end is yet to come. Just remember to take a leaf from the British: Keep Calm, and Drink Tea.


1. Current Events and the Ego

#UK

Book CoverNothing in life is as important as you think it is when you are thinking about it.

"Thinking, Fast and Slow"
Daniel Kahneman (2011)

People mostly think that the times in which they live are more important than any other time. People have been doing this for quite some time. The first century Jewish historian Josephus bemoaned this aspect of Human nature two thousand years ago4 and since then our egos show no sign of letting us be more objective. Our egos make current events in the world around us seem more significant and cataclysmic than at any time in history. The scientist Lawrence Krauss states that "we are hardwired to think that everything that happens to us is significant and meaningful"5. We are, after all, at the center of our own little universes.

Remember that people take more interest in their own affairs than in anything else which you can name.

"Routledges Manual of Etiquette"
George Routledge (1860)6

Academics fall foul of this as much, and probably even more, than the layperson. For example, the sociologist Peter B. Clarke says that "the present age might well be described as an axial age" due to the scope and importance of changes in the current era7. Four sociologists from the Open University staff describe the "contemporary UK" as "a society which appears to almost everyone who lives in it to be in the throes of change"8.

I have never read a historian or social commentator say that they are living through times which are routine. Those who lived through the industrial revolution reported that Humanity was going through its most significant and disastrous change. But now, it is history. It is nothing compared to the telecommunications revolution of the present. Changes which are affecting us in our living lives seem much more important to us than the changes of the past. Once change has passed we no longer experience its importance. It becomes abstract. Changes that affect our own lives are made by our hungry egos into things that must be important for everyone. But future generations will wonder why on Earth we were all so hot under the collar: they will know that their generation lives in the most precarious and important of human times.

Text in this section taken from: "The Importance of Current Events is Amplified by our Egos" by Vexen Crabtree (2005).

2. Everything is Falling Apart

2.1. In the Press, Crime Rates Never Fall

#mass_media #newspapers #the_sun #uk_newspapers #western_culture

Downmarket media publications reflect - and exaggerate - many of the fears of society itself. News outlets have dropped most fact-checking and critical analysis steps in order to churn out news more cheaply and quicker and as a result daft and untrue stories are appearing in mainstream news9,10. There are virtually no checks or quality control mechanisms that newspapers have to adhere to, and, occasional outrages against press misbehaviour are quickly forgotten by paying customers. The purpose of it all is (1) sell more newspapers, or (2) influence public opinion. People are all too willing to believe exaggerated claims. People want their lives to be part of historical drama11. The millennium bug, worldwide pandemics, moral panics and fear that society is going wrong all betray humankind's neophobic reactions to progress and change. Newspaper editors pick on this fear and concoct alarmist stories from everyday events and statistics; for example they publish alarmist articles on dangers from mobile phone masts even though there are none, and there are almost no good-news stories about children despite massively improved circumstances12. Many editors and media owners have explained the usefulness of fear-mongering and sensationalism - it certainly sells more copy than balanced news. Fears become amplified and made more real by their appearance in headlines, creating a hysteria about a topic whereas in reality things are much more mundane and acceptable13. Professional broadcaster Fraser McAlpine says "news outlets are behaving like spoof sites, and they're making spoof sites look like sensible news" and people are finding it harder to tell the difference14. Modern newspapers and news outlets are producing low quality, misleading and untrue stories because they are driven by consumers who prefer entertainment, gloom and outrage rather than serious text of reasonable reading. Always remember that after thousands of hyped-up press warnings, on midnight of the 31st of December 1999, nothing happened.

See: "The Worst of the Modern Mass Media: 1. Mass Panics Based on Sensationalism of the Printed Press" by Vexen Crabtree (2009), which has these sections:

2.2. Cataclysm and Chaos is Always on the Horizon

It is very common for us to allow our egos to convince us that now, around us, are unfolding changes which are more important than those of any other time. We think that we are witness to the ultimate decline of Human society and that brooding and significant upset awaits on the horizon. People's own areas of interest are always the highlight of the crises of the present time - for example the children's worker and chaplain Johann Christoph Arnold in "Their Name Is Today: Reclaiming Childhood in a Hostile World" says that "Teaching has probably never been as difficult as it is now. [...] We live in difficult times and many people have lost their joy in life. [We witness many] gloomy statistics and dire warnings for the future of our society and its children"15. It seems to be a universal, negative human apprehension that we think we have noticed this coming catastrophe even while many others carry on regardless.

[The] media emphasizes the negative and pessimistic side of events and therefore creates perceptual crises of faith where no real crises exists.

"Global Trends 2005" by Michael J. Mazarr13

These feelings of the importance and foreboding of present events are shared by professional sociologists and analysts, who in addition to the typical Human desire to be at the centre of events, also have professional interest in highlighting the perils of the present time, and hence the relevance of their own skills, warnings and teachings. For example Alvin Toffler, an "influential political and cultural theorist... saw the 1980s and 1990s as a period of immense and cataclysmic change"16. A few decades before him, historian and public intellectual Gerald Heard also thought the same of his own time. He wrote:

No one can look at civilization to-day without the liveliest concern. That is a truism - a truism so painfully obvious that we have ceased to be able to respond to it. We turn impatiently away - away to our pleasures or our preoccupations, our amusements or our causes.

"The Third Morality" by Gerald Heard (1937)17

Such motivations, normally subconscious, have afflicted public intellectuals for as long as recorded history. The ancient Dao De Jing is traditionally said to be authored by Lao Zi. He was convinced that civilisation itself was a mistake, which had diverted people from the Dao (true way) and people had become unethical as a result. "Laozi looked back to a Golden Age of agrarian simplicity, when people lived in small villages with no technology, no art or culture, and no war". The solution to the problems of Lao Zi's time was, he argued, to abandon the goal-directed ethos of civilisation, and therefore find The Way, and rediscover how things ought to be. Needless to say, not many sociologists have gone that far in their warnings against modern society.18

Text in this section taken from: "The Importance of Current Events is Amplified by our Egos" by Vexen Crabtree (2005)

2.3. The EU is Always in Crises

#luxembourg

The EU was born in crises, as a result of the crises of WWII and of a long series of regular European wars. Every decade since then has seen prominent politicians pronounce that the EU is now facing "it's most serious crises yet". The Suez Crises (1956) and the 'crises' that resulted from the French National Assembly's rejection of the proposed European Defence Community in 1954 both resemble the combined Middle East 'crises' and the 'crises' of the Dutch and French rejection of the Constitution.

Following on from these two founding crises were a series of doom-laden prophesies from academics and professionals of every calibre.

By 1980 some academics warned about the possible disintegration of the EEC and even leading members of EC institutions openly spoke of the dismal state that Europe was in. At the twenty-fifth anniversary of the Rome Treaty, in 1982, the president of the European Parliament compared the Community to a 'feeble cardiac patient whose condition is so poor that he cannot even be disturbed by a birthday party' (Lagerfeld 1990)

"Origins and Evolution of the European Union" by Desmond Dinan (2006)19

After that dismal diatribe, the pronouncements continued throughout the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s. "Jacques Delors, who was president of the European Commission from 1985 to 1994, says that the present "crises" is the worst in the project's history"20. And again in 2005 Jeane-Claude Juncker, prime minister of Luxembourg, which then held the EU presidency, said "the EU is not in crises: it is in deep crisis"20. The EU is always in crises, just like crime is always getting worse, immigrants more dastardly, the weather deteriorating and employment evaporating.

There is something psychological about the need to give column-inches to the dramatic. The present crisis is based on a global depression and the comprehensive failure of some of the economies of European countries. There is genuine worry: there is always genuine worry. However valid and mighty the present problems are, all previous crises - similarly declared to be morbid injuries - have not yet resulted in any major demolition of the European project. It is not over until the fat lady sings!

2.4. The Millennium Bug - All Hype

A concerned researcher, Peter de Jager, attempted to warn industry experts that come year 2000, there might be an issue with the system clocks on Windows computers. This was particularly important for servers and networks. As these underlie much business, as well as national infrastructures in general, the problem certainly needed looking into. Jager received little attention, so, he hyped it up a bit. Then, the world's media took note of his warning, and propelled it into a massive story of worldwide doom and gloom way beyond the scale of the 'possible' risk initially pondered by the computer expert.

The press didn't examine the claim and investigate it. It is a simple procedure to set your system clock forward a few years to see what would happen. They didn't ask Microsoft or Intel about it. If the press had engaged with this kind of journalism - the kind that created the press in the first place - they would have discovered that not much happens when a computer's clock reaches the year 2000 and beyond. They could have then reported that some computer software firms are making outlandish claims in order to sell expensive yet pointless bug-finding software. But that's not what happened and even if they did know the truth, the papers wouldn't have ran it.

By the late 1990s, a final wave of sources joined in as all kinds of maniacs and religious groups cranked up the anxiety to the point of apocalypse. They were led by Gary North of Christian Reconstruction who declared that 'We need times so hard that men will turn to God.' Mr North had got in early, explaining in 1997 [...] 'Month by month, fear will spread. Doom and gloom will sell, as it has never sold before. I have positioned my name, my site, and Christian Reconstruction in the center of this fear. All I have to do now is to report bad news.

"Flat Earth News" by Nick Davies (2008)21

Gary North of Christian Reconstruction sounds rather like a modern newspaper editor! If the news services checked their facts, his claims would not have made the news.

When the Millennium Bug's big day came, nothing happened.

2.5. The Loss of Religion Means the Loss of All Morality

#buddhism #USA

We expect to find religious fanatics proclaiming that their own religion's codes of conduct ought to be adhered to, otherwise people will suffer the consequences. They say this because they believe in their own religion. For example after Anselm was banished from England at the turn of the 12th century, his fans warned that unless Anselm returned, Christianity risked complete extinction, and that "the most shocking customs" were prevailing - men were daring to wear long hair without fear of reprisal22! These Christians expected complete social moral collapse if the minutiae of their religion was not observed. They said so, because they believed in the Archbishop's religion. What isn't so expected is also finding some sociologists and academics fearing that the loss of religion in the West will result in mass degeneration and immorality on a scale that is society-threatening. Yet lo and behold, this warning gets repeated about every decade, at least since the 1960s.

Religions almost universally emphasize the moral duty of the individual. "God knows all" as the Qur'an and Bible repeat: examples in the Christian Bible include Job 28:24, 37:16; 1 John 3:19-20; and very frequently in the Qur'an: the first chapter (after the introduction) iterates God's omniscience ten times, for example Sura 2:29, 77, 85, 115 and 137. We all answer to God eventually. Buddhism and Hinduism likewise teach that we pay the consequences of this life throughout our next. So many people come to think of religions as being a bastion of moral thinking, because, religions tend to dramatize and exaggerate the rewards and punishments of good and bad behaviour. Don't forget that when Psalms 14:1 says "the fool saith in his heart that there is no God", the word it uses in Hebrew also means immoral people: immoral people say 'there is no god'. This emphasis is strong amongst laypeople: despite their record against human rights on an institutional and national level, locally popular religions are often seen as a force for good and there is a general belief that religion supports morality23. A 2002 poll in the USA, an unusually religious country for its state of development, found that on average 44.5% of the adults believed that "It is necessary to believe in God in order to be moral and have good values"24. This included both church-goers and laypeople. 65% of regular churchgoers believed it, thinking therefore that the vast majority of the members of "wrong" religions therefore could not be moral people. This ridiculous belief is still held by 25.7% of those who never attend church. Although it is hard to believe that this level of ignorance can exist in the rest of the world, the underlying belief was more popular in pre-modern times throughout the world. Academics have also toed this line; Talcott Parsons in 1966 said the same thing, merely using bigger words. After saying that what makes moral rules valid is a 'legitimation system', he adds that 'a legitimation system is always related to, and meaningfully dependent on, a grounding in ordered relations to ultimate reality. That is, its grounding is always in some sense religious. [...] The process of secularization, then, undermines the system of legitimation by which a society's rules seem to be grounded in ultimate reality.'25

Bryan Wilson is an insightful and respected sociologist of religion. Even he, in 1982, warned of mass breakdown in morality in the West if the religious underpinnings of moral propriety were forgotten.

As Wilson (1982: 52) concludes, 'Unless the basic virtues are serviced, unless men are given a sense of psychic reassurance that transcends the confines of the social system, we may see a time when, for one reason or another, the system itself fails to work...' [...] Wilson (1982: 86) describes how secularization resulted in the breakdown of morality in Western societies: 'When in the West, religion waned, when the rationalistic forces inherent in Puritanism acquired autonomy of their religious origins, so the sense of moral propriety also waned - albeit somewhat later, as a cultural lag. Following the decline of religion [... and the resultant] process of moral breakdown [... we should have] genuine concern about the role of morality in contemporary culture' (Wilson 1982: 87)

Bryan Wilson (1982)
Being discussed in "Key Thinkers in the Sociology of Religion"
Richard K. Fenn (2009) [Book Review]

After Parsons in 1966 and Wilson in 1982, Karen Armstrong repeats the same story in "A Short History of Myth: Volume 1-4" (2005), arguing that myth is essential for good ethics and meaningful living. How do all of these thinkers rationalize the fact that many god-believers, myth-believers and suchlike, appear to commit the same atrocities and immoralities as unbelievers? From the Dark Ages presided over by Christianity, to the spectre of Islamist brutality against (for example) women and gays in Islamic countries, it seems that religious morals are hardly a panacea. Karen Armstrong dismisses these problems with the odd concept that they are caused by "failed myths"26. An element of double-think appears to be in place: if religious people do good, it is because they are religious, whereas if they do wrong, it is because they are fallible human beings. Such circular logic ought to be challenged wherever it is heard.

So there are numbers of people who, if they want to be good or, wants to be seen as good, will gravitate towards religion simply because they think it is what required. These people, who have come to actively choosing to be a better person, will find that their efforts are rewarded whether or not they choose to do it within a religious framework.

There is plenty of evidence that religion is not required. Parson in 1966 and Wilson in 1982 both warned of systematic collapse in morality if secularisation continued. It not only continued, but has accelerated. There has been no mass failure. Crime is down, wars are shorter, violence is down. It happens that people can also adopt non-religious and secular philosophies in order to promote good moralizing. Secular movements such as the British Humanist Association and IHEU (International Humanist and Ethical Union) are devoted to encouraging moral behavior, moral thinking, overall conscientiousness and rationality. The main difference between these and religious groups who do the same, is that the religious groups often teach that they are the only valid source of morals.

Links:

2.6. Failing Our Youth, Mass Social Dysfunction and the Loss of English Language Skills27

Social commentator Daniel Goleman warns we now face a "collective emotional crisis" resulting in a worsening social dysfunction because of the modern inability to communicate with others properly - "he sees 'a growing calamity in our shared emotional life,' which is expressed in martial violence, child abuse, rising juvenile delinquency, and the increasing incidence of depression and post-traumatic stress. American schoolchildren shooting their classmates, teenage pregnancy, bullying, drug abuse, and mental illness are some of the consequences of the public's refusal to attend to its emotional needs"28. Our very grasp of language is slipping through our hands - the effects of the Internet on English writing and English grammar has been disastrous.

But all of this has been seen before. It seems that every generation has an upper echelon on wingers and complainers who busy themselves warning that society is about to collapse. William Langland stated that English is in decline, and that our schools have given up enforcing good standards of English - "there is not a single modern schoolboy who can compose verses or write a decent letter", Langland warns us all. Ranulph Higden sounded the same warning a year later, stating that the cause is the continual mixing of English with other languages is the cause. But Higden was not thinking of netspeak, pigeon English or colourful ghetto slang. Because Higden wrote that in 1387, and William Langland wrote his warning in 1386. In 1577 Richard Stanihurst bemoaned the loss of standards of English, and in 1672 the intellectual John Dryden warned that even the intellectuals of his era had lost the knack of skilled English-writing. Every century sees the same old warnings, repeated anew, with fresh urgency and contemporary examples, all proving that English is doomed.29

2.7. The End of the World

#christianity

End-of-the-world-mania is dependent upon certain properties of human ego. We want to witness important historical times, and we want to be at the fore and center of tumultuous and attention-grabbing events. There have been thousands of end-of-the-world predictions. They have been the products of many great minds and have had many devoted believers from various religions and cults. For example in Christian England alone, during the reformation, "eighty books were published on the subject of the world's end"30. All have put a lot of time and effort in to each and every prediction, building up supporting evidence from religious texts, historical trends and numerology. What do all these predictions have in common about the end of the world? They have all been wrong. Those promoting these fears, and those subject to them, are all in the grips of their own ego!

3. The Truth

3.1. Everything is Better Than You Think

By almost any measure, the world is better than it has ever been. People are living longer, healthier lives. Extreme poverty rates have been cut in half in the past 25 years. Child mortality is plunging. Many nations that were aid recipients are now self-sufficient.

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (2014)3

Crime rates are falling, large scale wars have apparently ceased to occur and other forms of violence are mostly decreasing (see the next section for all that). Worldwide poverty is decreasing, literacy has been rising for hundreds of years, and technology and medical science are making astounding strides in preventing diseases (many of which are now gone for good). Jobs and marriages may not be for life, but we are living twice as long. Absolutely nothing is as bad as people say. The press thrive on bad news. Our egos trick us into thinking we are living in the most important times during our own lives. We're not. Those times are yet to come. The end is yet to come. Just remember to take a leaf from the British: Keep Calm, and Drink Tea.

One particular feisty comment was made by Jeremy Paxman at the 2014 final of University Challenge, a quiz show that pits two seemingly omnipotent teams of University students against each other in a test of knowledge and cognitive ability: After presenting the trophy, he proudly declared that the teams had "demonstrated yet again that all this stuff about young people not knowing things is RUBBISH"31! Clearly, despite the internet, mass entertainment and the many other ailments of modern society, our youth are still able to excel!

3.2. Crime and Violence is Falling and War is Less Frequent

[Today] you will read about a shocking act of violence. Somewhere in the world there will be a terrorist bombing, a senseless murder, a bloody insurrection. It's impossible to learn about these catastrophes without thinking, "What is the world coming to?". Believe it or not, the world of the past was much worse. Violence has been in decline for thousands of years, and today we may be living in the most peaceable era in the existence of our species.

Steven Pinker (2011), Wall Street Journal32

This decline in violence is apparent not just recently, and not just in the modern era: it is apparent over a timescale of hundreds and thousands of years. Professor Steven Pinker, who is the strongest proponent of this good news (based on long-term statistical analysis), states that "from the Middle Ages to the present, at lesat in England, there has been a thirty-five-fold decrease in the rate of homicide"33. Pinker divides this humanitarian victory into stages: the first main decline in violence occurred as nations emerged with central governance, taking over from tribal rulerships.

Forensic archeology - a kind of "CSI: Paleolithic" - can estimate rates of violence from the proportion of skeletons in ancient sites with bashed-in skulls, decapitations or arrowheads embedded in bones. And ethnographers can tally the causes of death in tribal peoples that have recently lived outside of state control. [...] These investigations show that, on average, about 15% of people in prestate eras died violently, compared to about 3% of the citizens of the earliest states.

Steven Pinker (2011)32

The second decline of violence was a civilizing process that is best documented in Europe. Historical records show that between the late Middle Ages and the 20th century, European countries saw a 10- to 50-fold decline in their rates of homicide.

Steven Pinker (2011)32

Another improvement occurred since the enlightenment-era concentration on individual human rights, alongside the increase in good and balanced governance that is based on rules of law, not on individual power. "A growing wave of countries abolished blood sports, dueling, witchhunts, religious persecution, absolute despotism and slavery"32.

Since World War II there has been an unprecedented period of peace. Before it, for example, there were non-global wars between European countries every year. "Though it's tempting to attribute the Long Peace to nuclear deterrence, non-nuclear developed states have stopped fighting each other as well. Political scientists point instead to the growth of democracy, trade and international organizations - all of which, the statistical evidence shows, reduce the likelihood of conflict. They also credit the rising valuation of human life over national grandeur - a hard-won lesson of two world wars"32.

World-wide battle deaths per 100,000 people

The news will continue to show us all the bad stuff because although no news is good news, they have to show something! This can make it hard to appreciate the statistical facts that violence and violent deaths have been declining. Because it is not very exciting and hard to turn it into a story (unlike a murder), few news outlets can adopt the "things are continually getting better" motif as opposed to the "everything is going wrong" motif. The former gives people little to get their teeth stuck into, whereas dramatic news lets people rant and rave about how, right now, during their own lives, important things are happening that must be resisted and shouted about. It's all about the ego.

4. The Pessimism Syndrome in the Mass Media

This section is taken from: The Worst of the Modern Mass Media.

Poor quality press and news reports portray a biased and skewed vision of the world. This is not just a form of gloomy entertainment. It has real-world effects on the life of society. The social academic Michael J Mazarr says that the "media emphasizes the negative and pessimistic side of events and therefore creates perceptual crises of faith where no real crises exists"13. Research shows that the contents of the news that people read does affect their opinions and attitudes whether or not they 'trust' them. "Over 70 per cent of viewers trust television news as fair and accurate, while only one-third trust newspapers"34. Although surveys of trust show that people do not trust much they find in newspapers, the contents of those papers effects their worldviews nonetheless. Despite intellectual doubt, the contents of trashy, poor-quality news is insidious and subconsciously absorbed.

In 1991 the [Center for Media and Public Affairs in Washington, DC] did an exhaustive analysis of network news and New York Times stories on the rapidly recovering U.S. economy. An astounding 96 percent of stories about the general economy were negative in tone; pessimism occupied 87 percent of the stories on real estate, 88 percent of the features on the auto industry, and a perfect 100 percent of stories on manufacturing. [Now] the intervening years have produced one of the longest economic expansions of the postwar era, [it] looks positively foolish.

"Global Trends 2005" by Michael J. Mazarr35

The media play a significant role in provoking ... irrational attitudes. There is no such thing as good news when it comes to children. In January 2000, a report by the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children indicated that no babies were abducted from U.S. hospitals in 1999. This story could have been used to reassure expecting mothers but was swiftly buried. On the other hand, every negative incident involving [causes a media storm].

"Paranoid Parenting: Why ignoring the experts may be best for your child" by Frank Furedi (2002)12

The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, a hardworking charity organisation famed for the genuine progress it makes in fighting disease and poverty in Africa, report that in every measurable way, things are better in Africa than ever before, and indeed, around the world:

You might think that such striking progress would be widely celebrated [but instead] I´m struck by how few people think the world is improving, and by how many actually think the opposite - that it is getting worse. [...] The belief that the world is getting worse, that we can´t solve extreme poverty and disease, isn´t just mistaken. It is harmful. It can stall progress. It makes efforts to solve these problems seem pointless. It blinds us to the opportunity we have to create a world where almost everyone has a chance to prosper.

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (2014)36

Mazarr describes the classical sociological studies that concentrated on this negative view of the world. It became commonly known as the Pessimism Syndrome. The author continues to consider what solutions there might be to such an inbuilt, subconscious bias.

The first element of the solution involves a demand for more objectivity on the part of the news media. It would be wrong, and simplistic, simply to ask network news broadcasters or weekly newsmagazines to report "happy news"; ignoring problems is no alternative to exacerbating them, and one of the media's most important roles is to uncover social ills. [...] More fundamentally, the real solution to the pessimism syndrome is education. Citizens of developed and developing nations alike need a context to understand information they receive, a basis of objective facts that help moderate the news.

"Global Trends 2005" by Michael J. Mazarr37

Mazarr points out that education is the key to shattering the dark glass that the popular press portrays the world through. Supporting his view are statistics on what people believe about crime rates. The Home Office highlighted an undercurrent of the pessimism syndrome when it complained about the public perception of crime rates: That the trash tabloids are its principal voicepieces and tabloid readers' perception of crime rates are more skewed than readers of better newspapers.

Two major points:

  1. The Pessimism Syndrome affects tabloids and popular opinion, resulting in outlandishly negative slants even on economies or crime trends that are doing well.

  2. Readers of national tabloids fall victim to this mis-reporting more than readers of broadsheet newspapers.

We have seen two factors that help prevent this skewed representation of reality:

  1. Education in general facilitates a more objective and realistic reading of the news.

  2. Avoiding the tabloids and trashy news services results in a more realistic outlook of events and trends.

It is the trashy tabloids and popular weekly magazines that are most damaging, but despite this they remain by far the most successful.

The popular presses have exaggerated events and created "moral panics" about some issues where there was not actually a problem. A sociologist who writes on this topic, Erich Goode, points out the media's active role in the creation of many issues, including: The UFO craze, the dramatizing and wholesale exaggerating of 'epidemics' of violence in school, the phantom of Satanic ritual abuse in the 1960s, the paedophile abduction of children, and even the 'fact' of increasing crime. It has been editorial policy in nearly all titles (except the qualities) since the 1980s to pick on popular fears or worries and to exaggerate and emphasize them with alarming headlines, such as with the millennium bug38. These are (or were) seen in the papers over and over, and all evaporated as the evidence and any supporting statistics failed to materialize.39.

For more, see: "The Worst of the Modern Mass Media" by Vexen Crabtree (2009).

5. Golden Age Thinking: The Past is Not as Good as it Seems40

#USA

ANCIENTS AND MODERNS: The great dispute between the ancients and the moderns is not yet settled; it has been on the table since the silver age succeeded the golden age. Mankind has always maintained that the good old times were much better than the present day.

"Voltaire's Philosophical Dictionary" by Voltaire (1764)41

But is it really true? One critical thinker from 1998, Anton LaVey in San Francisco, USA, highlights some home truths about the state of how things used to be in the recent past:

Having been a rebellious youth, I can attest that the "good old days" were not so good. First off, conformity - right or wrong - was king. [...] It's easy to argue that one conforms just as much today, but to different standards. But I believe there is more room for individual, out-of-the-closet non-conformity than ever before - if the opportunity is taken. Things we now take for granted were once so tabooed as to be unthinkable. [...]

If you were traveling abroad and got homesick, you couldn't jump on a jet and be back in your own bed in a few hours. Mail was slow, and long distance telephone was a costly luxury. Well-made products were so well made that it took four strong men to move an item that could now be single-handedly lifted into a van. [...] Driving a car was a greater risk. Tires blew out. [...] Brakes failed. [...] Radiators overheated. [...]

Clothing was of fine material - and heavy, uncomfortable, hot, scratchy, and hard to maintain. [...] Dress codes were rigorous. I could not buy a black shirt, and had to have them made. [...] Adornments like earrings on a man were unknown. No respectable man had tattoos, and if a woman didn't wear a corset or girdle, she was a slut. [...] People smelled pretty strong. Heavier clothing made them sweat. [...]

Intolerance was rampant [and] anyone who was slightly different fair game for ridicule or insult.

It was a much crueler world for the elderly, the handicapped, and children. [...] Con artists and poseurs always had an audience because everyone was more polite and well-mannered and trusting to a fault. [...] Food preferences were not catered to in the good old days.

"Satan Speaks!" by Anton LaVey (1998)42

When people say "things used to be better" they are often thinking only of one or two contentious topics. All of the mundane, day-to-day improvements become so commonplace that they are easy to overlook: increasing tolerance, equality and diversity, mass communication, the internet, good clothes, consumerist choice, accountable government, the rule of law: all of these are taken for granted to the extent that we no longer feel the pain from the times when none of them stood on firm ground. Yes, some things were better. Life is now overcrowded, the natural world is decimated, the pace of change is quicker, technology is inescapable and peace and quiet are surely harder to find. But in comparison with the past, these are petit concerns. Things have never been so good as in the current era! Golden-age thinking is flawed and short-sighted.

6. Altruism from Where You Least Expect it: Communal Togetherness and Secular Morality in an Unreligious and Commercialist Age

#christianity #UK #USA

In the depths of the cities of secular Europe, and out of the moral confines of the most commercial part of the computer industry in the USA, non-religious communal spirit is proving itself inextinguishable.

You can't count or quantify these elements of communal pseudo-spirituality in the same way you can count people entering Churches, but, such things have not disappeared alongside shared Christianity in the West. The world is not simple enough to simply blame areligious materialism for social ills. Most of the world's most horrendous human-rights abusers are intensely religious countries, and, most of the world's poorest countries lack free markets. It must therefore be noted as rather odd when religious types claim to represent the moral side of mankind.

7. The Continual Advance of Science and Technology

Africa has developed no banking system infrastructure, and no telecommunications network. Doctors, emergency services, government officials and humanitarian workers had to improvise with patchy communications and, frequently, little knowledge about local areas. The moniker of 'the dark continent' seems apt for this reason. But, mobile phone technology has allowed the most backwards continent to become a trend-setter: as mobiles do not require cabling infrastructure, they have been used there for mobile banking and as mobile wallets, a feat which is only popular in the most advanced country of all, Japan.

Modern technology has heralded a long series of amazing advances. The Internet, computers, international travel, high tech science experiments helping us learn about entire galaxies and the formation of the universes billions of years ago, medical science which has eradicated large numbers of serious and horrible diseases through vaccinations, and an untold number of other improvements to all of our lives... all of this gets ignored by the doom-laden prophecies of the disenfranchised. The rate of success in applying advanced science and advanced technology in our everyday lives is not only progressing surely and nicely, but it is accelerating and has been since the industrial revolution. All negative effects have been spotted, debated and mitigated (except, perhaps, for climate change).

The world has been so dogged by bad news of late that it is almost possible to forget about tiny miracles like the LOC. But two timely new books remind us that boffins continue to make the world a better place even as politicians strive to do the opposite. Peter Diamandis and Steven Kotler make a breezy case for optimism in Abundance: The Future is Better Than You Think. Eric Topol provides a more considered look at why medicine is about to be Schumpeterised (his word) by digital technology. These books are a godsend for those who suffer from Armageddon fatigue. They also remind us that technology keeps improving despite economic gloom.

The Economist (2012)47

(In case you are wandering: LOC = Lab On Chip 'a small device with a huge potential. It can run dozens of diagnostic tests on human DNA in a few minutes. Give the device a gob of spit or a drop of blood and it will tell you whether or not you are sick without any need to send your DNA to a laboratory. In poor countries LOCs could offer diagnostics to millions who lack access to expensive laboratories. In the rich world they may curb rising medical costs'.

8. Parental Love Almost Always Prevails

The family is not about to break down causing anarchy on every street. Families survived our move into cities, they survived the worst and longest depressions of history, they survived world wars that saw most adult males go to war and many of them die, and families survive in circumstances so difficult it is painful to read about. Sociologist Ronald M. Green employs (and coined) a nifty little phrase for this: PLAAP: Parental Love Almost Always Prevails, and talks of the massive improvements that have been made the world over in medicine that affects the family (aside from where religious institutions successful oppose them). Further advances, say in genetic engineering, will also not destroy the family:

Book CoverSo it is not clear to me that genetic testing or gene enhancement will endanger parental love. [...] Because the family is the center and source of so much that we value, we should be worried about anything that threatens it. But many of our fears are overblown. Consider this. Less than a century ago, in my grandmother's day, almost every decision about becoming parents, including the timing, spacing, and number of children, was left to chance. Today we use contraception to determine how many children we will have and when we will have them. If we face infertility, we use high-tech medicine and test-tube conception to procreate. People needing the help of sperm or egg donors choose those donors from catalogues providing detailed information about the donor's traits and background. Women routinely undergo dozens of prenatal tests to ensure the health of the child. [...] Has any of this impaired parenting?

"Babies by Design: The Ethics of Genetic Choice" by Ronald M. Green (2007)48

Current edition: 2013 Feb 01
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References: (What's this?)

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The Bible (NIV). The NIV is the best translation for accuracy whilst maintaining readability. Multiple authors, a compendium of multiple previously published books. I prefer to take quotes from the NIV but where I quote the Bible en masse I must quote from the KJV because it is not copyrighted, whilst the NIV is. Book Review.

The Economist. Published by The Economist Group, Ltd. A weekly newspaper in magazine format, famed for its accuracy, wide scope and intelligent content. See vexen.co.uk/references.html#Economist for some commentary on this source..

The Guardian. UK newspaper. See Which are the Best and Worst Newspapers in the UK?. Respectable and generally well researched UK broadsheet newspaper..

Skeptical Inquirer. Magazine. Published by Committee for Skeptical Inquiry, NY, USA. Pro-science magazine published bimonthly.

The Koran. Penguin Classics edition. Originally published 1956. Current version published by Penguin Group Ltd, London, UK. Translation by N. J. Dawood. Quotes taken from 1999 edition.

Armstrong, Karen
(2005) A Short History of Myth: Volume 1-4. 2008 Kindle edition. First published in Great Britain in 2005 by Canongate Books Ltd.

Arnold, Johann Christoph
(2014) Their Name Is Today: Reclaiming Childhood in a Hostile World. Paperback book. Published by Plough Publishing House, New York, USA. This book is "based on Arnold's acclaimed book Endangered: Your Child in a Hostile World (2000)". Book Review.

Bainbridge, William Sims
(2011) Atheism. This essay is chapter 17 of "The Oxford Handbook of The Sociology of Religion" by Peter B. Clarke (2011).

Bloom, Clive
(2001) Literature, Politics and Intellectual Crises in Britain Today. Published by Palgrave.

Boyer, Pascal
(2001) Religion Explained. Hardback book. Published by William Heinemann, Random House Group Ltd, London, UK.

Clarke, Peter B.. Peter B. Clarke: Professor Emeritus of the History and Sociology of Religion, King's College, University of London, and currently Professor in the Faculty of Theology, University of Oxford, UK.
(2011) The Oxford Handbook of The Sociology of Religion. Paperback book. Originally published 2009. Current version published by Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.

Davies, Nick
(2008) Flat Earth News. Hardback book. Published by Chatto & Windus, Random House, London, UK.

Dinan, Desmond
(2006) Origins and Evolution of the European Union. Published by Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.

Ellerbe, Helen
(1995) The Dark Side of Christian History. Paperback book. Published by Morningstar & Lark, Windermere, FL, USA.

Fenn, Richard K.
(2009) Key Thinkers in the Sociology of Religion. Paperback book. Published by Continuum International Publishing Group, London, UK. A look at what 11 sociologists of religion think of "the sacred". Be warned that Fenn's book contains one chapter on each sociologist of religion but that his own mystical and specific take on 'the sacred' is heavily intermingled with his commentary - see the book review for a proper description. Book Review.

Furedi, Frank. Professor of sociology at the University of Kent, UK.
(2002) Paranoid Parenting: Why ignoring the experts may be best for your child. Paperback book. Published by Chicago Review Press, Chicago, USA. This edition is "substantially different" from the 2001 UK version.

Green, Ronald M.
(2007) Babies by Design: The Ethics of Genetic Choice. Paperback book. Published by Yale University Press, USA.

Heard, Gerald. (1889-1971)
(1937) The Third Morality. Hardback book. Published by Cassell and Company Ltd, London, UK.

Hume, David
(1688) The History of England, Volume I. E-book. Subtitled: "From the Invasion of Julius Caesar to the Revolution in 1688". Amazon Kindle digital edition prepared by David J. Cole.

Jones, Bill
(2004, Ed.) Politics UK. Paperback book. 5th edition. Originally published 1991. Current version published by Pearson Education Ltd. With Dennish Kavanagh, Michael Moran and Phillip Norton.

Josephus
The Jewish War. Paperback book. 1981 print of 1970 revised edition. Originally published 1st century. Current version published by Penguin Books. Translated by G. A. Williamson.. Book Review.

Kahneman, Daniel
(2011) Thinking, Fast and Slow. Paperback book. Published by Farrar, Strauss & Giroux, New York, USA.

Krauss, Lawrence. Lawrence Krauss is Foundation Professor in the School of Earth and Space Exploration and the Physics Department at Arizona State University, as well as Co-Director of the Cosmology Initiative and Inaugural Director of the Origins Project.
(2012) A Universe from Nothing. E-book. Amazon Kindle digital edition. Published by Free Press, New York, USA.

Lagerfeld, S.
(1990) In 'Europhoria', Wilson Quarterly, 14:57-67. Via Dinan (2006).

LaVey, Anton. (1930-1997) Founder of the Church of Satan.
(1998) Satan Speaks!. Paperback book. Published by Feral House, USA.

Mazarr, Michael J
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Mottier, Veronique
(2008) Sexuality: A Very Short Introduction. Published by Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.

Routledge, George. (1812-1888)
(1860) Routledges Manual of Etiquette. E-book. Amazon Kindle digital edition. Produced by Curtis Weyant, Leah Moser and the Online Distributed Proofreading Team, from scans provided by Case Western Reserve University's Preservation Department.

Voltaire. (1694-1778)
(1764) Voltaire's Philosophical Dictionary. E-book. Amazon Kindle digital edition produced by Juliet Sutherland, Lisa Riegel and the Online Distributed Proofreading Team.

Footnotes

  1. Furedi (2002) chapter 4 p84 refers to Goleman's book "Emotional Intelligence: Why It Can Matter More than IQ". Added to this page on 2015 Feb 15.^
  2. Mottier (2008) digital location 422-424 . Seneca was writing to his friend Lucilius, and the quotations given were preceded with this: 'You are wrong, Lucilius, if you think that luxury, contempt for morality and other vices are merely vices of our time'. Added to this page on 2015 Jun 30.^
  3. Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (2014) on annualletter.gatesfoundation.org accessed 2014 Jan 25. Added to this page on 2014 Feb 08.^^
  4. Josephus p28.^
  5. Krauss (2012) p121.^
  6. Routledge (1860) Part IV, Conversation.^
  7. Clarke (2011) chapter "Introduction" p7 .^
  8. Bob Kelly, Gerry Mooney, Ross Fergusson and David Goldblatt. Open University DD100. Introductory Workbook (2004 3rd ed.).^
  9. Davies (2008) book theme.^
  10. Article by Kevin Rawlinson in The Guardian (2016 Apr 17) accessed 2016 Aug 31.^
  11. "The Importance of Current Events is Amplified by our Egos" by Vexen Crabtree (2005)^
  12. Furedi (2002) p5.^^
  13. Mazarr p9.^^^
  14. The fake stories hitting the headlines article by Jodie Smith, BBC News (2016 Feb 27) accessed 2016 Aug 31.^
  15. Arnold (2014) p.XV,15.^
  16. Bloom (2001) p43.^
  17. Heard (1937) p13.^
  18. Armstrong (2005) p89-91 , commentary on the Dao De Jing.^
  19. Dinan (2006) p187.^
  20. The Economist (2007 Mar 17) "Special Report on the European Union". Cyprus and Malta became the 14th and 15th countries to adopt the Euro [The Economist (2008 Jan 05).^
  21. Davies (2008) p11, 24-27.^
  22. Hume (1688) chapter 6, digital location 4397-4400. Added to this page on 2015 Jul 20.^
  23. Boyer (2001) ch.1 "What is the Origin?" p6-7.^
  24. Bainbridge (2011) p324. I suspect that if the logical opposite question was asked - 'Are those who don't believe in god necessarily immoral?' few would have put 'yet', so I suspect the numbers found in the 2002 survey represent people while thinking non-rationally. Added to this page on 2013 Jan 30.^
  25. "Key Thinkers in the Sociology of Religion" by Richard K. Fenn (2009) [Book Review] chapter "Talcott Parsons" p89-90. Great apologies to Talcott Parsons if this misrepresents his position; the commentary stems from R. Fenn, who is unreliable and unclear in places. Added to this page on 2013 Jan 30.^
  26. Armstrong (2005) p136.^
  27. Added to this page on 2015 Feb 15.^
  28. Furedi (2002) Chapter 4, p84, referring to Goleman's book "Emotional Intelligence: Why It Can Matter More than IQ". Added to this page on 2015 Feb 15.^
  29. The Economist Books, arts and culture blog entry dated 2015 Feb 12. Accessed & added to this page on 2015 Feb 15.^
  30. Ellerbe (1995) p163 . Refers to Keith Thomas, Religion and the Decline of Magic (New York: Charles Scribner's Sons 1974) p142.^
  31. Jeremy Paxman in University Challenge, aired 2014 Apr 07 on terrestrial channel BBC 2.^
  32. Wall Street Journal (2011 Sep 24) article "Violence Vanquished" accessed 2011 Oct 04. Added to this page on 2011 Nov 16.^
  33. Skeptical Inquirer (2013 Jul/Aug) p4,36-41. Added to this page on 2015 Aug 22.^
  34. Jones (2004) p202.^
  35. Mazarr p265.^
  36. Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (2014) on annualletter.gatesfoundation.org accessed 2014 Jan 25.^
  37. Mazarr p272.^
  38. Davies (2008) p137.^
  39. Erich Goode "The Skeptic Meets the Moral Panic" in Skeptical Inquirer (2008 Nov/Dec) Vol. 32 Issue 6. Goode has taught sociology at multiple USA universities and has authored multiple books on sociology, including co-authoring the book Moral Panics.^
  40. Added to this page on 2015 Jun 24.^
  41. Voltaire (1764) p4. Added to this page on 2015 May 24.^
  42. LaVey (1998) p11-15. Added to this page on 2015 Jun 24.^
  43. The Guardian (2006 Jul 20) .^
  44. Lewis, J. (2009)^
  45. BBC News live News 24 (2011 Sep 10, 21:17hrs).^
  46. Two sources on Bill Gates, one biased towards atheism, one towards Christianity. Both agree on the quotes from Gates in an interview by David Frost on PBS (1995 Nov) and in Time Magazine 1996, where he says that religion is a waste of time, and he´s not sure if there is a God. (1) www.celebatheists.com/?title=Bill_Gates (2) www.jesus-is-savior.com/...meet_a_few_atheists.htm . Both articles not dated, both accessed 2011 Sep 13.^
  47. The Economist (2012 Mar 03) book reviews.^
  48. Green (2007) chapter "Parents: Guardians or Gardeners?" .^

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